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2026 Institutional Outlook Predictions Based on Who Was Right in 2025

Best Predictions for BTC, ETH, & regulation from 22 reports

The Caladan Weekly | The Yen Carry Trade That Broke Bitcoin 3 Times (And Why the 4th May Be Different)

Bitcoin has broken three times on BOJ rate hikes. With Japan tightening again, we examine why the yen carry trade mattered, and why this time the real risk may lie elsewhere.

The Caladan Weekly | Strategy Has Real Problems. A Death Spiral Isn’t One of Them

Strategy has real problems—ETF competition, credibility damage from dilution, and index risk—but a “death spiral” isn’t one of them.

The Caladan Weekly | Why The Road Ahead for BTC Isn’t as Bleak as it Looks: Macro, Structure, and the Path Forward

Bitcoin is down about 32% from its Oct 6 ATH, but the structure hasn’t broken. QT has ended, rate cuts are underway, ETFs and corporates still anchor demand, and on-chain data shows supply migrating to long-term holders. Here’s the macro and market-structure roadmap, plus what would actually invalidate the bull case.